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Thursday, April 21, 2011

ANALYSIS: Retail momentum underpins US vehicle market growth

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Growth of the US light vehicle market is being underpinned by strong momentum in retail sales alongside a strengthening economy, according to JD Power.

JD Power Automotive Forecasting's Director Jeff Schuster told the Global Outlook Conference in London last week that the US light vehicle market is off to a strong start in 2011, underpinned by a reviving economy and strong momentum in retail sales.

JD Power is forecasting that the US light vehicle market will reach 13m units in 2011, 12% up on 2010. While the market is still way down on the 16m-17m levels of the 2003-2007 period, Schuster sees some upside potential ahead – though he acknowledges risks associated with the recent rise in oil prices and ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East.

“Consumer confidence has been hit lately,” he told delegates.

“But going forward beyond this year, economic growth projections [3-4% annual growth of GDP this year and next] look pretty good and there will be growth to demand coming from increased household formation coinciding with higher replacement demand,” Schuster maintains.

And more younger people becoming economically active will also be accompanied by older people staying in the job market for longer.

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